China’s Automobile Market (Part 1): Overview for 2025 and Outlook for 2026

In 2025, China's factory shipments of automobiles are expected to exceed the previous year's 31.44 million units, marking the fifth consecutive year of record highs since 2021. Of this total, export volume is projected to increase from 5.86 million units in the previous year to approximately 7 million units, making China the world's largest auto exporter for the third consecutive year. Domestic automobile sales—calculated by subtracting exports from factory shipments and adding imports—are forecast to approach 28 million units. One of the factors supporting the growth of the Chinese auto market in 2025 is the government's vehicle trade-in subsidy program. This policy, introduced in April 2024, has been implemented with an expanded scope of eligibility in 2025. As of the end of November 2025, applications for trade-in subsidies reached 11.2 million units and are expected to hit 12 million for the full year, serving as a key driver for market growth.