China’s Automobile Market (Part 3): Commercial Vehicle Sales Are Expected to Decrease in 2026

Commercial vehicle shipments (for the domestic market and exports) in 2024 decreased by 3.9% year-on-year due to a slowdown in macroeconomic growth and a reactionary decline from the previous year, with the domestic production and sales scale, excluding exports, dropping by 9.0%. In 2025, the market recovered, supported by government trade-in support measures for commercial trucks and urban route buses, among others, leading to a projected increase in full-year factory shipments of over 8% compared to the previous year. Commercial vehicle exports are forecast to exceed the one-million-unit mark for the first time, while the scale of domestic production and sales, excluding exports, is predicted to reach approximately 3.1 million units.